November Stanley Cup odds: Avalanche remain favorite
Let’s touch wood.
We have made it through the first month and about 10% of the season without a break or postponement, but the pandemic continues to play a significant role. Even though nearly all players are vaccinated, teams have been forced to seat players due to the league’s COVID protocol.
Nonetheless, we have a sample size large enough (albeit still small) to make a few observations and take a look at the updated Stanley Cup winner futures bets. Green and red arrows indicating movement are based on implied odds and compared to our last look at them.
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM and accurate as of November 1, 2021.
Colorado Avalanche +550
The Avs remain the favorites even if they occupy the fifth place of the Central, already four points behind the Blues, first. I would be confident with the Avs if they had better goalkeepers; Kuemper has an Sv% of 0.904 and a GSAA of -2.1 according to the hockey-reference.com model. We also still don’t know if this team have reliable depth beyond their top line, although a Cale Makar-Bowen Byram pair advantage could potentially provide a lag. It’s hockey, and being the favorite rarely leads to the end of a storybook.
Florida Panthers +850
The Panthers naturally made one of the biggest jumps, ending the month with 17 of 18 possible points. Their odds have been steadily increasing since the summer and have now edged the Knights in a tie for second place with rival Lightning. There’s plenty of room if you still want to jump on the bandwagon, but being seen as the potential finalist is already about as good as it gets. The Panthers’ .944 point percentage pace is obviously unsustainable, perhaps meaning the odds may drop for another buying opportunity.
Vegas Golden Knights +1000
This is what happens when you devote too much of your cap to your top players and those top players end up getting injured. The Knights lack the depth or perspective to fill the void left by Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, and the Oilers and Flames look like they can fight for the division title. Even acquiring Jack Eichel won’t help their short-term prospects, but if you still like the odds of Vegas when they’re healthy, there might be some value here. They have to go through the next two months relatively unscathed as the competition in the Pacific is much tougher than expected.
Edmonton Oilers +1,400
Good goalies Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen changed the outlook for this team. The defense still grants a league-high 36 shots per game, but with the league’s eighth-best .925 Sv% of their goalies and the fourth-best offense in goals per game, they have been able to cover up that weakness. With Vegas faltering, the Oilers’ chances of winning the division increased, and that could be the difference between facing a wild card team or a Jacob Markstrom and the Flames in the first round. The Oilers are looking pretty good so far, and their path to the final could be easier than that of the Leafs.
Blues de Saint-Louis +2200
Jordan Binnington’s .926 Sv% is just one basis point away from his career high in 2019, the year the Blues won the Cup. Funny coincidence aside, it looks like the Blues have enough depth to roll all four lines the way they want, and sitting in first place in a tough division with a 6-1-0 start will certainly help stem any terrain. lost when they start to cool off. I’m not yet convinced by the Blues, but among the three teams with a +2200 odds – the others being Pittsburgh and Minnesota – the Blues definitely seem to have the easier path.
Calgary Flames +3000
At worst, the Flames appear to be the third best team in the Pacific behind the Knights and Oilers. They rank sixth in Corsi% and 11th in Fenwick%, modeled on hockey-reference.com, and it’s a good sign that Darryl Sutter is on top of this team now that they look like the championship-winning Kings’ teams. ‘he used to train. , only with a better attack with a dominant top line from Elias Lindholm between Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau. Their style of play and arguably having the best goaltender in the division right now means they’ll be able to go further into the playoffs. The Flames went from preseason playoff prospects to an outside chance to win the division title.
Winnipeg Jets +4000
The Jets went 4-2-2 after a horrific start and missed out on key players due to COVID protocol, but that wasn’t enough to change their odds anyway. Their 5-5 possession numbers aren’t very good – to be fair, they’ve never been under Paul Maurice – but finishing second in a tough month in a tight division should be a very positive indicator of the quality of the Jets. . It doesn’t look like the Jets’ odds are going to drop, and their odds will surely improve with their 19th place finish of .903 Sv%.
Chicago Blackhawks +12500
The squad are a disaster both on and off the ice, and even with the amount of talent on this roster, you wonder if they can really come out of their hole. They got a meager two points in nine games in October, and we haven’t seen them play really well as a group yet. The overhaul of their roster seems to have highlighted even more weaknesses than before, and even the most optimistic fans should agree that there is almost no chance that this team will even come out of the first round if they have the chance to qualify for the playoffs.